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Programmatic buying, Isaac Asimov, and predicting human behavior

Whenever we discuss predictive analytics, upon which the success of programmatic ad buying is based, I think of Isaac Asimov and his theories regarding the use of mathematical statistics to predict human behavior: Psychohistory.

Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory.)

Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science’s creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms:  (1) that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large and (2) that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses

(There is a third underlying axiom of Psychohistory not stated by Seldon in his Plan: that Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy.)

Mankind has attempted to control and manipulate human behavior since time immemorial. Kings, Clergy, Politicians and Corporations have always tried, sometimes successfully and sometimes unsuccessfully, to create controlled conditions for the purpose of inducing a predicted and preferred response.

For example, in the 17th century when the serfs began to stir and chafe against the rule of royalty; the Bible was rewritten (The King James Version) to include passages promising everlasting heaven if one was willing to suffer on earth: the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. There are 7 beatitudes that are part of the same strong subserviance is honorable rhythm.

They got their predicted and preferred response; continued docility; at least for a while.

In my opinion, although we can make predictions based on tracking intelligence, habit, and muscle memory; we can’t track and predict the heart, emotions, rebellion, mischievousness and other ephemera; at least not for long.

To follow are 4 takes on programmatic ad buying as provided by John Smith and AdExchanger: Read the rest of this entry »

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The Internal Netflix Management Policy

The radical management policies of Netflix as a reflection of the digital economy.  They’re a lot different than the those implemented by the companies Dad worked for during the Industrial Age.

For example:

1.  No vacation policy (take as much as you want, as long as you’re doing a great job and covering your responsibilities).

2.  “Outstanding” employees only- Doing an “adequate” job leads to your getting a “generous severance package,” so the company can hire an A-player in your place.

3.  “Freedom and responsibility” vs command-and-control: Good managers give their employees the right context in which to make decisions–and then the employees make the decisions. Poor employee behavior is caused by misunderstanding – “Managers: When one of your talented people does something dumb, don’t blame them. Instead, ask yourself what context you failed to set. High performance people will do better work if they understand the context.”

4.  No “brilliant jerks” – Star performers who also happen to be hell to work with are sent packing.

5.  Prioritize Discovery Over Job Security – “Many people love our culture, and stay a long time. They thrive on excellence and candor and change….Some people, however, value job security over performance, and don’t like our culture.”

6. Creativity is Most Important – “ In procedural work, the best are 2x better than the average. In creative/inventive work, the best are 10x.”

Click here to see the whole Powerpoint. (You might have to hit the refresh button for it to load.)

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Facebook makes you spend more, research shows

Most of us use social media every day. Research shows this online networking makes people feel better about themselves. But could that positive feeling have a negative impact on behavior, making you spend more or even eat more?

As strange as it sounds, a new study suggests the answer is “yes.”   Two marketing professors say their research shows – for the first time – that using online social networks can influence behavior by reducing self-control. They conclude that Facebook and other social media can have significant effects on consumer judgment and decision-making.

“People who use Facebook more tend to have a higher body-mass index (BMI), increased binge eating, carry more credit card debt and have lower credit scores,” said Andrew Stephen, an associate professor at the University of Pittsburgh.

Stephen and Keith Wilcox, an associate professor at Columbia University, believe these “unintended psychological consequences” of Facebook use are related to the ego boost people get from social media. And they found that effect is greater if you have a high percentage of close friends online.

“Simply browsing Facebook makes people feel better about themselves and momentarily enhances their self-esteem,” noted Wilcox. “It’s that enhanced self-esteem that ultimately lowers your self-control.”

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What Happens in Brooklyn Moves to Vegas; the current exploits of Tony Hsieh

Entrepreneurs like Tony Hsieh are disruptive and dangerous to people like the Koch brothers; dinosaurs left over from the Industrial Age. Men who strip a company or countryside down to nothing while extracting their profits and leaving the ruined remains for others to deal with.

They don’t understand how a man like Mr. Hsieh can make enormous amounts of money while trying to make people happy. They certainly don’t understand how he can profit by putting people first and a return on community above a return on investment.A new era has been emerging for the past 15 years or so and there are a lot of people like Mr. Hsieh; visionaries and thought leaders shaping our future in ways that the old guard must consider alien.

eBrand Media has had the pleasure of working with Zappos. I know first hand that they treat their vendors as well as they treat their clients. We are pleased to have worked with them for a couple of years.

Read more about Mr. Hsieh’s next venture here: What Happens in Brooklyn Moves to Vegas

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Poll shows most users distrust Facebook

Facebook’s public offering will be the largest and perhaps most highly anticipated Internet deal in history. But faced with great expectations, Facebook is staring down some potentially unnerving obstacles when it comes to key areas of monetization and growth: public distrust and display advertising apathy.

According to a new AP-CNBC poll, 57 percent of Facebook users say they never click ads or other sponsored content when they use the site, with another 26 percent saying they hardly ever engage in such activity. Only 4 percent of users say they often click on ads — results that are only slightly better than the 2-3 percent clickthrough rate some experts consider the benchmark for effective banner ads.

While the company makes money, in part, simply by displaying sponsored content, user clicks are a critical part of an advertiser’s calculus when gauging how effective those ads are and how much they’re willing to pay for them. In the first quarter, Facebook generated 82 percent of its $1.06 billion in revenue from advertising sales.  In the company’s online IPO pitch to retail investors, CFO David Ebersman says the company is working to make ads “more relevant, more social, and more engaging” as it looks to grow.

And while Facebook has been able to decrease its reliance on sponsored content (down from 98 percent of sales in 2009), the hopes of expanding the company’s e-commerce footprint also faces public resistance, the poll shows. A majority of participants (54 percent) said they wouldn’t feel safe using the platform for financial transactions like purchasing goods or services. Only 8 percent said they would feel extremely or very safe in doing so.

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