Category Trend Tracker
Attribution, Recursive, and Predictive Modeling – The Marketing Sciences of the New Frontier
By Tom Polanski, EVP, eBrand Media and eBrand Interactive
Every marketer in 2010 wants to understand where the end-users first “touch’ with a company’s advertising originated and to track or even predict how many “touches” it took, and where, to generate a conversion. Then budget can be allocated in a statistically sensible manner.
There are a number of reasons why I call these soft sciences, which I interpret to mean part science, part art, and part magic. First and foremost the cookie level technologies haven’t been developed, let alone making sure that they are collecting data in the same way. As an aside; web analytics software, typically Omniture or Coremetrics, each has a different approach to tracking. Marketers who have adopted this type of marketing modeling are often disappointed to find that they still have to explain allocating budgets based on “confidence” and probable “significance” levels.
Companies are expecting a little more accuracy than that.
And, of course, there’ll be conflicts within the organization between display (what to do with post impression attribution?), email, and search.
To me there a several reasons why mathematical modeling for interactive marketing is currently in vogue, and the way of the future:
Posted by Tom Polanski in Tom Polanski, Trend Tracker, eBrand Interactive, eBrand Media on March 14th, 2010
Sales At Retail Expected Down in February, But Ecommerce Expected Stronger
According to the February Consumer Reports Index, though consumers spent more than they planned to this past holiday season, they aren’t planning to open up their wallets again anytime soon. The Past 30-Day Retail Index for February, which reflects the purchases consumers made in January, is 10.9, a decline of 23% from the previous month says the report.
The Next 30-Day Retail Index, which represents the number of electronics, appliances, and yard and garden equipment consumers said they’re planning to buy in February plummeted to 6.9 from 8.9 the prior month. That’s the lowest level it has been since August of last year.
The hesitation to spend money is not the result of personal financial hardships, however. The consumer Reports Trouble Tracker showed real improvement. It declined to 53.4 in February from 58.2 in January. The top difficulty reported in February: the inability to afford medical bills or medications (14.7 percent, up from 12.7 percent in January).
Posted by eBrand Media Research Department in Trend Tracker on February 16th, 2010
Microsoft may pay News Corporation to pull news content from Google listings
According to Michael Wolff, writing at Newser, on November 10, 2009:
”Rupert Murdoch continues his war with the Internet. Over the weekend, he told an interviewer (the interviewer, on Sky News Australia, works for him) that as part of his campaign to charge users for reading his content, what he plans to do is to block Google from indexing his newspapers.
As of a year ago, Murdoch had never used Google—never once, unassisted, has he run an Internet search—and so it might be reasonable to assume he doesn’t know what’s involved here.
It is quite possible he doesn’t realize—and can’t fathom—that removing News Corp.’s newspapers from Google means that, in the largest part of the information market, they would cease to count, cease to be a factor, that their absence would not register as a hole.
Nor, it is possible, does he realize that as much as 90% of his traffic comes from Google and other search engines, that even if his goal is to sell content, there is really no other way to direct people to it than through search engines.”
But Mr. Murdoch didn’t accidentally become one of the wealthiest and powerful men in the world. He wants to get paid.
It was reported today that Microsoft is the early stages of discussing a deal with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation where Microsoft will pay News Corp to provide its news content to Bing while pulling its content from Google.
To learn more please visit “For Search, Murdoch Looks to a Deal With Microsoft”
Posted by eBrand Media Research Department in Trend Tracker on November 23rd, 2009
Cross-Channel Attribution Model On Track To Replace The Last Click
Say bye-bye to the last click as the de facto measurement tool. Tools are being developed that Forrester Research analysts believe will have an impact on the way that advertising allocates ad budgets across media channels, from online to offline.
Forrester Research recently published a report titled “The Forrester Wave: Interactive Attribution, Q4 2009,” focusing on what Analyst Emily Riley calls “the bleeding edge of an industry change.”
Online advertising has always held the promise of being the most accountable medium, but execs in the industry now realize models need to measure much more across many advertising channels. Riley says cross-channel attribution is so new that companies offering the metrics model and the technology comprise a “motley crew” from across the industry.
Most of the “solutions” are not “fully baked and few of the companies offer a full service media buy, where the company does the measurement, analysis and reallocates the media buy,” she says.
Posted by eBrand Media Research Department in Trend Tracker on November 18th, 2009
Effective January 1st, 2010, Yahoo! will no longer support the Paid Inclusion (SSP) program!
By Tom Polanski, EVP, eBrand Media and eBrand Interactive
As you’re probably aware, Yahoo! announced a strategic alliance with Microsoft, which is wending its way through the federal regulatory process, and which would position Bing to be the search and monetization engine for both companies. Yahoo! would focus on its strengths as a producer of Web media sites, from finance to sports, as a marketer and a leader in on-line display advertising that accompanies published Web sites.
It appears that Microsoft is pressuring Yahoo! to drop its successful and highly profitable Paid Inclusion program. The Paid Inclusion program has been a compelling and dependable source of revenue for advertisers. It consistently delivers a return on ad spend that surpasses Google, Yahoo Search, and Bing.
I can only guess that Microsoft is adopting Google’s view of ethical internet behavior and is dropping the program because it believes that it is duplicitous to allow companies to buy PPC advertising in an area of the web page that has been traditionally reserved for “free” or “organic” listings. It may fear that an association with a program that has been as controversial as the SSP program may degrade the value of the brand.
Posted by Tom Polanski in Tom Polanski, Trend Tracker on October 16th, 2009