Whenever we discuss predictive analytics, upon which the success of programmatic ad buying is based, I think of Isaac Asimov and his theories regarding the use of mathematical statistics to predict human behavior: Psychohistory.

Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. (Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory.)

Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science’s creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms:  (1) that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large and (2) that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses

(There is a third underlying axiom of Psychohistory not stated by Seldon in his Plan: that Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy.)

Mankind has attempted to control and manipulate human behavior since time immemorial. Kings, Clergy, Politicians and Corporations have always tried, sometimes successfully and sometimes unsuccessfully, to create controlled conditions for the purpose of inducing a predicted and preferred response.

For example, in the 17^th century when the serfs began to stir and chafe against the rule of royalty; the Bible was rewritten (The King James Version) to include passages promising everlasting heaven if one was willing to suffer on earth: the poor in spirit: for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. There are 7 beatitudes that are part of the same strong subserviance is honorable rhythm.

They got their predicted and preferred response; continued docility; at least for a while.

In my opinion, although we can make predictions based on tracking intelligence, habit, and muscle memory; we can’t track and predict the heart, emotions, rebellion, mischievousness and other ephemera; at least not for long.

To follow are 4 takes on programmatic ad buying as provided by John Smith and AdExchanger: Read the rest of this entry »